Offseason Outlook - Part III

This article is the third and final part of a three-part article series discussing what we can possibly expect from the Yankees and Brian Cashman this offseason. I broke this into three parts because there is so much to talk about and I don't want to bore you with a never-ending article.

If the Yankees do not like what they are seeing on the Free Agent market, they can certainly dabble in the Trade Market. Might actually be a better option to acquire starting pitching, since there really isn't that much available out there. Scott Boras also thinks that he can get $500 million for Bryce Harper - I know I want to sign him but really? That's a lot of dough and I thought he'd be going for about $340 to $350 million. Can't blame Boras for trying to get the best for his clients, there's a reason he's been in the business for so long...

WHICH YANKEES PLAYERS CAN BE DEALT?

So, in order to acquire quality player(s) in a trade, one must give up some quality players as well, right? I mean, any team that is willing to part ways with their "ace" will probably want some young MLB ready players or a handful of top prospects in return - they aren't just going to give them away. So which players that are currently on the Yankee roster might be options to ship off in order to improve the starting rotation?

SONNY GRAY - I will start with Sonny, because Brian Cashman has already indicated his plans to move him this offseason. Usually Cashman is pretty cryptic with his plans, but he flat out said Gray will be traded. Yankees acquired him in 2017 to bolster their rotation, and at the time they were praised for this move. Gray was having a solid year in Oakland, and even after the trade he still performed well. 2018 was a completely different story, and Gray easily had one of the most forgettable seasons a pitcher could have. Cashman gave up a lot to acquire him (Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Dustin Fowler) and Gray turned out to be a complete flop. I rooted for him all season to turn things around, but it just didn't happen. Some speculate that he requested a trade during the season, and apparently Cashman received several calls on him... but ultimately Gray was "benched" - moved to the bullpen, and we really didn't see much from him. Gray was also left off the postseason roster. Cashman still believes Gray is a good pitcher, just not in New York... some players just aren't built to pitch in New York. Remeber Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Jeff Weaver, and so many others? Cashman will look to flip him to a smaller market team - someplace he can flourish again. Maybe in exchange for some prospects, but I wouldn't expect anything MLB ready, as Gray will definitely be a buy low candidate. Don't worry, Cashman will get all that he can for him.

MIGUEL ANDUJAR - What? Not the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up?!?! How dare you! There really aren't many players on the current Yankee roster that are MLB ready, with several years of team control, and a contract other teams would be willing to pay... Miguel Andujar actually fits this mold. He has already proven he can hit MLB pitchers, in the AL East, and might be the only player the Yankees may be willing to part ways with in a package to acquire an Ace for their rotation. Andujar is young, and he can hit - but his defense is definitely the weakest part of his game. If the Yankees are planning to sign someone like Machado, then you could almost bet that Andujar will be traded. It's not that I don't want Andujar on the Yankees, it's just that if you have a young player that you can trade to significantly upgrade your rotation with an "Ace" - you shouldn't hesitate to do so. It'll be hard to see him in another uniform.

AARON HICKS - Each season since Aaron Hicks was acquired from Minnesota for catcher John Ryan Murphy, he has significantly improved. Last season, he had a break out year - in 2018, he cemented himself as one of the top defensive and offensive Center Fielders in the game! With that said, the Yankees have a plethora of outfielders - which is not a bad thing. If they had a plan to sign another solid outfielder (Harper, Brantley etc) - or they expect Jacoby Ellsbury to be healthy (yes, I laughed out loud when I typed that), and even if Clint Frazier can stay healthy too then they will have a good amount of depth at the position. One of the wonderful things about having depth at a position isn't just in case of multiple injuries, but it can be used to trade for someone that plays at a position you lack depth in. Aaron Hicks posted a .248/27HR/79RBI season, setting career highs in both home runs and runs batted in. His value may never be higher, he's 29, and will be a Free Agent after the 2019 season. Now, I have never been very high on Hicks, but he has improved quite a bit. If they can move him, I say do it!

GLEYBER TORRES - Between Torres and Andujar, I would prefer the Yankees hang on to Torres. He's only 21 years old, and he is so much more versatile than Andujar. He can play both keystone positions, and with some more experience can hit for both power and average. He was the prize in the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs back in 2016, and has been highly regarded since coming to the organization. Torres is someone you could build your core with (not that you can't with Andujar), and has been untouchable since his acquisition. It would be silly to hold on to him for so long. Teams will likely ask for him in trade talks, but I would bank on him remaining with the team - especially with Didi being out of the lineup for an extended period of time. But, I am sure if Cashman got a call for the right player, at the right time, Torres could be a part of that.

GREG BIRD - Yankees wouldn't get much for him - he's been unable to stay healthy, and when he did play in 2018, it was not great. A team would have to be willing to take a flier on him, with hopes that he would have a bounce-back season in 2019. I really doubt the Yankees trade him, the belief is that Cashman is still pretty high on him, but the guy should start 2019 in AAA, so he can get consistent at bats, and build up his confidence again. I like Greg Bird - don't hate me for that. He can be a good MLB hitter - I really believe they rushed him back.

CLINT FRAZIER - Clint was acquired from Cleveland during the 2016 sell off, as one of the prized prospects received in the trade that sent away Andrew Miller (Justus Sheffield is the other). Since coming into the Yankee system, Frazier has held his own - and it is likely that on 29 other teams he would be a starting outfielder. Lauded for his "off the charts" bat speed, many Yankee fans envisioned him in the Yankee outfield with Aaron Judge, but some injuries and concussion issues have really limited his playing time. 2018, Frazier probably missed his chance due to severe bad-luck. There was a brief period of time where the Yankees were very thin on depth in the outfield due to injuries. They had just traded away Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney to Toronto, and Hicks, Judge, and Ellsbury were ALL injured. I included Ellsbury because he's always injured. It was so bad, they were sending out Shane Robinson regularly to play. That should never happen. If Frazier were healthy, he would have seen significant playing time. Alas, the Yankees still see a ton of potential in him, as I am sure several other teams would as well. With all of this depth (when healthy) the Yankees have, they may try to include him in a trade to acquire a starting pitcher. I would love to see Frazier have some success and even get a shot, unfortunately it may not be in pinstripes like we all hoped.

JACOBY ELLSBURY - I included him here because it seems no Yankee fan wants him. He has spent the better part of this contract injured. Which is sad, because Ellsbury could be a productive player, if he could only stay healthy. He just flat out has not. Now, the Yankees have two aging outfielders that are basically the same player (Gardner + Ellsbury) - at least Gardy has been a contributor. It's hard to imagine that the Yanks would wouldn't try to unload Jake's huge contract, the problem is he has played so little, has been so injured that no team would likely trade for him. He's too much of a risk at too much salary. The only way the Yankees likely trade him is in return for another bad contract for a player they could actually slot into the Opening Day roster. I would be surprised if that happened, so if he's healthy - look for Jacoby to be the $20 million bench player nobody wants. For my sake, I hope I am wrong and he actually has a productive year.

Of course trades today are very different than years ago, it's rare you see an MLB player traded for another MLB player. Usually teams trade a single MLB player for a slew of prospects - it's all about getting younger and adding depth to your team's farm system. Because, we all know that not every highly touted prospect pans out. Plus, a team usually sells off one of their higher paid players to free lower their payroll and free up salary because they (as a team) are no longer contending, or they just cannot afford the big contract any longer. The Yankees have a number of young prospects that might be available to trade off in order to acquire a talented starting pitcher - so you may see names like Justus Sheffield, Estevan Florial, Albert Abreu, + Jonathan Loaisiga tossed around in potential trade packages. There are a few teams out there right now that may be looking to sell off some of their big name players in exchange for some of the Yankees young and talented prospects in order to rebuild their farm system. Even at this point in the offseason, the Yankees could potentially match up with each team looking to sell.

CLEVELAND INDIANS - It came to the surprise of many the rumors that Cleveland would listen to trade offers for some of their big name players. The two players that the Yankees would have the most interest in are Ace Corey Kluber and Carlso Carrasco. Both are right handed pitchers that would serve a immediate upgrades to the Yankee rotation. Kluber more-so than Carrasco (but Carlos is no slouch). Kluber (32 years old) just completed an impressive 2018 campaign, compiling a 20-7 record with a 2.89ERA in 33 starts. Kluber threw 215.0 innings with 222 strikeouts and an impressive 0.99 WHIP. The addition of Kluber to ANY team would immediately strengthen the rotation, and he could be the "Ace" the Yankees so desperately need over the course of the entire season. Carlos Carrasco also had a pretty solid season, in 30 starts he went 17-10 with a 3.38 ERA. He tossed 192.0 innings and struck out 231 batters. Imagine if the Yankees could swing a trade that would net them both Kluber and Carrasco? Kluber's contract expires in 2021, which would give the Yankees three years of control before he becomes a Free Agent. Carrasco, 31, would become a Free Agent after 2020. When the news broke that these two pitchers might be available, many thought the Yankees could acquire both, but now it seems as if any trade is made, it would be for one or the other - not both, as the asking price is rumored to be astronomical. It should be. Kluber is a bonafide Ace. Carrasco is a fantastic pitcher. The Indians are a good team, and even if they trade either of these players - they will still be a good team. Some names that have been tossed out there for what the Yankees would have to give up are some combination of Torres, Andujar, and top prospect Estevan Florial - I am sure this would also include other prospects as well. At this point, the Yankees are being smart about this, and not jumping at the chance for Kluber. But you can't prospect hug, especially for 3-years of Kluber - I wouldn't sacrifice Torres, I think he has the most potential between him and Andujar (both are incredibly promising players).

SEATTLE MARINERS - The Mariners are another team that has indicated they would listen to trade offers on a number of their top players. Unfortunately that wouldn't include stud reliever Edwin Diaz. However, it would include their Ace James Paxton - who has been on the Yankees' radar for some time now. Paxton tossed a no-hitter last season and he is a big left-handed pitcher. The Yankees could used more lefties. The 30-year old Canadian born Paxton pitched fairly well in the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field in 2018, posting an 11-6 record, with a 3.76 ERA, 160.1IP, 208 SO and a WHIP of 1.098. Not bad. The Yankees could definitely acquire him for less than what it would cost for Kluber or Carrasco. But, my thoughts are, if you can get Kluber or Carrasco - then you should try for them. If they are no longer available, Paxton would be a nice back-up option. Another player the Yankees could trade for from Seattle is the speedy Dee Gordon - especially if they traded Hicks. Gordon can hold his own in CF - and he would probably love a reunion with Giancarlo Stanton. Gordon put together an okay year (more of a down year) in his first season with Seattle - .268AVG/4HR/36RBI. Dee is a prototypical leadoff man, who would be ideal to take the place of Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks at the top of the order. He is purely contact, a player that is capable of hitting for average and getting on base. This is where his numbers were down, only getting on at a .288OBP clip - yikes. He still managed to swipe 30 bases, would would have easily led the Yankees. However, if the Yankees do hang on to Aaron Hicks - this trade would not make sense. Another option is to trade for former Yankee, Robinson Cano. I will admit, before leaving the Yankees, Cano was my favorite player and I was incredibly disappointed when he left for Seattle. It's crazy to imagine that he's been with Seattle for five seasons already - and 2018 had to be his most disappointing season, as he was suspended 80 games for PED's. I never would have expected this from Cano - thinking he saw what happened to A-Rod first hand. I can see why Seattle would be open to trading him, they invested so much money in him. Anyways, Cano would have 5 years left on his 10-year, $240 million mega deal he signed back in 2014. I would think if traded, the Yankees would have to pick up most of his remaining salary - but if I am the Yankees I would expect Seattle to pay some of that too. Cano will be 36 this season, and when he returned from his suspension, he played 14 games at 1B, and 2 at 3B. He's always been a pretty solid defender, although like Machado - he was often criticized for his lack of hustle. I would venture to guess the Yankees want to avoid a reunion here. Sorry Robby - you may be stuck in Seattle because there really aren't many teams that would want to take on his massive contract. How ironic would it be if the Yankees traded Ellsbury to Seattle for Cano? Bad contract for bad contract and split the difference? I doubt that would happen, but I couldn't help but laugh.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - The Diamondbacks have indicated that they would listen to trade offers on a few players, more notably Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke. At least, these would be the only two players the Yankees might have interest in. Goldschmidt sounds appealing because who wouldn't want an MVP caliber First-Baseman? In 2018, Goldschmidt put together a solid .290AVG/33HR/83RBI campaign, could you imagine that kind of production out of First Base for the Yankees? It's hard not to want that... however, if Arizona is willing to trade him - he would not come cheap. If Cashman were to give up top prospects this winter, I would rather it be for starting pitching. As inexperienced and inconsistent a Voit/Bird (in that order) situation would be, I would certainly let them battle it out. A big note on Goldschmidt is he would become a Free Agent after this season - if traded to New York, there's no guarantee he would re-sign there - that's a lot to give up for a rental, when you have more pressing needs elsewhere. I know I had highlighted First Base as an area of need, but if they do upgrade it should either be through Free Agency, or a move that wouldn't prevent them from acquiring a top notch starting pitcher. However, if Cashman could sway the Diamondbacks into packaging Goldschmidt with Ace Zack Greinke, that would be a different story - but if you think getting just Goldy would be costly, imagine adding a starting pitcher with three more years of $30+ million remaining on his contract. I had just looked up his stats, and couldn't believe he is 35 years old - sheesh, when did that happen? Anyways, Greinke is still a good pitcher, he holds a 187-118 career record (but I guess wins aren't that important anymore) and career 3.39 ERA with a solid 1.17 WHIP. Last season he made 33 starts and posted a 3.21 ERA in 207.2 innings, with 199 strikeouts and a sparkling 1.08 WHIP. He would definitely be an upgrade to the staff regardless of his age. However, if they re-signed Happ, acquired Greike - I don't know how I would feel having three starters that are 35 and older... My guess is this won't happen.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - The only Giant player that would make sense for the Yankees to try and trade for is Madison Bumgarner. Honestly, there isn't any other Giant player I would want. The Giants should listen to offers for their Ace, mainly since they will likely have another sub-par season. Mad-Bum, Longoria and Posey are another year older, and time is running out for these fellas. What makes Bumgarner appealing, other than the fact that he is a left handed Ace - is that he has had so much success in the postseason. Probably one of the advantages he has over acquiring Kluber or Greinke. Bumgarner has dealt with injuries the last two seasons and has only made a combined 38 starts over that timespan. This is one of the reasons I (and likely many others) believe the Giants may not ask for quite as much in return. In fact, the Yankees may not even have to give up Andujar, or a top prospect. I would offer Aaron Hicks for Bumgarner straight up. But that's me, and the Giants probably say no since Hicks becomes a Free Agent after next season. However, their outfield depth is pretty thin, and could use a top notch defender coming off his most productive season ever to roam the spacious center field in San Francisco. And if I am reading this correctly, Bumgarner is a Free Agent after next season too, so maybe Hicks for Bumgarner wouldn't be a bad move after all. Yankees would have to do their homework on this, and make sure he is completely healthy. After returning from injury, he pitched as well as he could have for the 73-89 Giants, posting a 3.26ERA in 129.2 innings pitched. Maybe Bumgarner proves he can make 30 starts in 2019, and Yankees are able to re-sign him.

CINCINNATI REDS - This one is sort of developing as I am writing this article, but the Reds have expressed significant interest in everyone's favorite Yankee starter - Sonny Gray. It has been noted that multiple teams have interest in Gray, my guess they figure he is fit for a bounce-back season, and if you look at Sonny's stats, he was far better away from Yankee Stadium - posting a 7-5 record with a 3.17 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Clearly, Gray could not handle pitching in the Bronx as his 4-4 record with a ghastly 6.98 record at home would support that theory. Trading him to a small market, National League team would probably be the best thing for him. (Because they are similar in sample size, Gray's road stats were close to, if not better than AL Rookie of the Year's Shohei Ohtani's overall season stats, because - you know... he only made 10 starts). I digress... are the Reds a good fit? Well, we may be about to find out, as the rumors that are swirling around right now is that a deal could be reached at any time this weekend. So, what could the Yankees get in return? Good question, and you're certainly dreaming if you think it's Joey Votto or flame-thrower Raisel Iglesias... but there is a potential match if the Yankees add a solid prospect to the deal it could be for second baseman, Scooter Gennett. Since Didi is going to miss significant time, this move could be a significant pre-cursor to a Manny Machado signing and quite possibly a Miguel Andujar trade. You slide Torres over to his natural shortstop position, put Machado at third, and Gennett at second. Gennett just came off an impressive year, as he batted .310, with 23 home runs and 92 runs batted in for a terrible Reds team. This is a follow up to 2017, where he hit .295 AVG/27HR/97RBI - not too shabby. Like I said the Reds would not trade him just for Sonny Gray, so the Yankees would have to sweeten the pot a little. There is also the possibility Cashman flips Gray for Reds' top infield prospect Jeter Downs, last time the Yankees had an infielder named Jeter it turned out quite well. We shall see...

OAKLAND ATHLETICS - Another team that is interested in Sonny Gray is his former team. The A's desperately need starting pitching, as they didn't even have a legitimate starter to pitch in the Wild Card Game (I think they should have started Mike Fiers, because he always seems to pitch well against the Yankees). Gray would be comfortable here, as he has had pretty much all of his success in Oakland. However, what could the A's send to NY? Matt Chapman? I wish. No, but maybe they could get back some of the prospects they gave up for him, like Dustin Fowler (MLB ready outfielder can provide depths in AAA) or James Kaprielian? Kap hasn't pitched in a game since he was dealt to Oakland for Gray in 2017, as he was recovering from injury. I don't see much else Oakland has that the Yankees could get in return for Gray, plus this rumor hasn't had as much steam as Gray being dealt to Cincinnati, so my guess is that it won't happen.

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As much as I love the Major League Baseball season, the offseason carries with it so much excitement with so much player movement and anticipation for the next season. Not much has happened just yet, but with the Winter Meetings coming up, you might see some big moves and major signings and I would expect one of the teams involved to be the Yankees. This is the time where we find out what kind of team the Yankees will be in response to their rivals spending big and winning the World Series. Don't expect any knee-jerk moves - Cashman will do his homework, and I will expect that by the time Spring Training rolls around this Yankee team will be much improved and ready to de-throne the Red Sox.

Please let me know what you think, share your thoughts - I would love to have conversations about any possible moves the Yankees and Cashman make.