Tonight, the Yankees square off against the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. The series heads to the Bronx after the teams split the first two games in Boston. Yankees will send their Ace, Luis Severino to the mound to face-off against former Yankee, Nathan Eovaldi.
The Yankees comeback fell short in Game 1, as they gave up 5 early runs, as J.A. Happ proved to be ineffective against the Boston offense. After a dominant Chris Sale was taken out of the game, the Yankees clawed their way back within one, as the bullpen shut down Boston over the final 6 innings of the game. However, after loading the bases in two consecutive innings with less than two outs, and only scoring two runs - the Yankee offense had many missed opportunities. After an Aaron Judge leadoff home run off Craig Kimbrel in the 9th, the Yankees would end up falling 5-4.
In Game 2, down 0-1 in the series, this was basically a MUST-WIN for the Yankees. They came out swinging against David Price, scoring 3 in the first two innings and knocking Price out of the game after 1.2 innings. Price, had a pretty solid season (16-7, 3.58 ERA) but struggled mightily against the Yankees. I feel like he has struggled with them since he left Tampa Bay... weird, right? Price now carries a 5.28 ERA in his postseason career, and the only reason it's not higher is because he pitched out of the bullpen for the Rays in 2008 to a 1.59 ERA. Price is 2-9 in the postseason as well - however his only 2 wins have come in relief. Either way, in Game 2 - the Yankees got big home runs from Aaron Judge (his 3rd in 3 consecutive postseason games) and 2 MONSTER home runs from Gary Sanchez. Sanchez, who has struggled all year looks like he was saving it all up for these two swings. If Judge and Sanchez are getting hot, then it is clearly at the right time. Now we just need Giancarlo Stanton's bat to wake up, as he has looked abysmal in this series... very overmatched.
So, now that the series returns to Yankee Stadium, the Yankees clearly have the momentum - and I think, they have Boston right where they want them. Yes, I know the series is tied at 1, but Boston BARELY held on to win that game, the Yankees beat themselves.
Tonight, Boston will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound to face off against Severino. Eovaldi was acquired by Boston at the July Trade Deadline from the Tampa Bay Rays after showing some early success after coming back from his second major arm surgery. After coming to Boston, Eovaldi went 3-3, with a 3.33 ERA - he was basically hit or miss, kind of sums up his time with the Yankees. He had an okay September, only going deeper than 5 innings once.
The key for the Yankees against Eovaldi is to be patient, work the counts and grind out at bats. When the Yankees stick to this approach throughout the game, they are a very hard team to beat. They led the MLB in walks, and have a tendency to grind out at-bats - making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches per at bat. They need to get into that Boston bullpen. They sort of did this against Chris Sale - I know he dominated the Yankees and only gave up a couple hits. But, they made him throw 20 pitches in the first inning - if they find themselves facing Sale again, they need to make him work - I feel like Boston will be saving Sale for a potential Game 5. Make him throw lots of pitches - I know it looks bad when the Yankees strike out a lot, but the positive is that strike outs require many pitches to be thrown. I think if the Yankees worked Sale a little better in Game 1, they get him out an inning earlier and potentially win that game.
Boston's bullpen is easily their greatest weakness. It's crazy that a team with a bullpen like this won 108 games, but team is also very capable of scoring a lot of runs, which I guess makes up for this deficiency, and is always something to keep in the back of your mind here. These two teams are pretty evenly matched in this series, but the Yankee's bullpen is the one area they have a significant advantage. Boston's bullpen gives up a lot of runs, this is why the Yankees were able to chip away in Game 1 and make it a close game. If they can battle, make Eovaldi throw more pitches, grind - foul off the tough pitches, try not to chase the bad ones (I am looking at you Gleyber Torres) - then he is more liable to throw a mistake. A mistake to a team that set an MLB record in home runs, could work very well to the Yankees advantage. But, they need to stick to this approach throughout the entire game.
The next key against the Boston offense for Severino is to not rely on the Slider too much. I was watching him in the Wild Card game, and in the first inning he was dominant, throwing smoke, and mixing in his slider nicely. Each inning after that, he threw more and more sliders and changeups. In return, he threw more and more pitches. Severino threw 83 pitches in 4.0+ innings. That is way too many pitches. And if you were watching closely, the majority of these pitches were off-speed and out of the zone. He threw 34 balls, and walked 4 batters. He was developing a reliance on his slider, and Oakland was catching on to it. I personally think, for Severino to be successful against this Boston lineup is to follow what Tanaka did. Attack. Attack. Attack. Go right after them, and be aggressive by throwing quality strikes. What I mean by quality strikes, is work the corners - move the ball up and down in the zone, and change their eye level. He needs to work off his fastball, establish it (because he can consistently throw it 99 mph) and then mix in your slider and change up. If the slider is breaking well tonight, it will look like that fastball out of his hand, and dive out of the zone, keeping the Boston hitters off balance. Throw too many sliders, walk too many batters - a good offensive team like Boston will take advantage of that.
The defense needs to tighten up. I have been impressed how Boone has handled this so far - I love the fact that he is willing to take Andujar out of the game and replace him with Hechavarria early, Voit too. And, the Yankees are very fortunate that they have such a deep bench and can put in a quality defensive player such as Hech and Neil Walker. These guys are seasoned MLB veterans that can swing the bat too.
Lastly, the Yankee Stadium crowd in the Wild Card Game was unreal. I have unfortunately never been to a postseason game, but I do have ears - I have heard how loud the can get on TV. The team feeds off this energy. This crowd needs to be loud and energized from start to finish.
Three of the key players that carried the Yankees all season long were Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar - all of which are showing their age and inexperience in this postseason setting. "But Greg, Stanton has been around for nine seasons, he is not inexperienced!" Yes, you are right he has been around for a while now, but... before this season do you know how many postseason games Stanton has played? ZERO. And it's showing. The moment seems to be getting the better of him, like he is trying to put the team on his shoulders and do everything himself... A-Rod 2.0? A-Rod struggled in the postseason for the Yankees until 2009. Stanton needs to relax, and trust his abilities - I know that's so much easier said than done - but he has hit 305 home runs doing what he does best, just playing his game. This is just a game, and should be treated no differently than any game he has played before. That's how Jeter, Bernie, and even Judge (this season) have been able to have so much success in the post season, they don't let the game get the best of them, Stanton has been around long enough, he should be able to make this adjustment. As for Torres and Andujar, this applies to them as well. They are swinging the bat like rookies, chasing bad pitches, trying to do too much. If they are able to slow down their approaches, and just play their game, then this Yankee lineup will be pretty dangerous the rest of this postseason. There is a reason Andujar (should be the Rookie of the Year) and Torres had such great seasons.
I think the Yankees can win this series in 4 games. They were one of the few teams to play Boston very tough this year. And, I personally think in the AL, they might be the only team that could beat them. Houston is very good, and they split their season series with Boston - I think they would ultimately lose. I also want the Yankees to advance and face Houston for redemption of last season... I am sure all Yankee fans want this as well.
We shall see what happens.